* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/07/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 28 35 41 53 65 75 76 70 61 52 44 37 32 28 25 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 35 41 53 65 75 76 70 61 52 44 37 32 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 38 39 35 31 27 23 21 19 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 22 19 19 15 8 12 17 15 9 2 4 2 3 4 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 -1 -1 1 4 3 7 1 0 5 0 2 0 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 85 60 48 46 43 39 40 57 69 62 27 342 56 261 221 254 239 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.3 25.1 23.5 23.3 21.8 22.0 22.1 20.8 20.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 148 149 149 148 149 139 116 99 97 80 82 83 70 70 80 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -50.5 -50.6 -49.7 -50.2 -50.0 -50.5 -50.5 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 78 77 80 81 82 73 69 60 57 52 50 49 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 14 18 20 25 29 34 33 31 27 23 19 17 14 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 18 19 29 35 57 83 108 119 114 123 116 100 92 85 63 200 MB DIV 114 147 129 132 119 109 90 30 34 -10 -12 10 -11 -17 -2 -5 18 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -8 -11 -5 -3 2 3 6 6 14 14 21 LAND (KM) 774 762 741 726 688 616 529 578 528 712 927 1123 1268 1423 1569 1716 1788 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 13.2 14.3 15.9 17.7 19.2 19.8 20.0 20.0 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.3 107.1 107.0 107.0 107.4 108.4 110.4 113.2 116.4 119.5 122.2 124.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 5 7 11 15 15 16 14 11 10 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 16 15 13 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 5. 13. 21. 26. 30. 32. 32. 31. 29. 26. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 6. 8. 11. 19. 30. 31. 29. 23. 17. 11. 7. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 21. 33. 45. 55. 56. 50. 41. 32. 24. 17. 12. 8. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.6 107.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 6.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 6.2% 25.0% 6.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 2.1% 8.4% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##