* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/07/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 29 34 38 48 57 63 63 58 50 42 34 27 23 19 15 V (KT) LAND 20 23 29 34 38 48 57 63 63 58 50 42 34 27 23 19 15 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 30 29 27 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 16 10 9 17 16 19 21 15 15 13 9 12 7 11 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 3 7 6 3 4 0 3 2 6 5 0 4 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 70 54 15 15 37 58 50 72 74 83 96 94 127 189 216 227 239 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 27.8 26.8 25.6 24.8 23.6 22.6 21.4 20.7 20.6 20.2 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 150 152 154 142 132 118 110 98 87 76 70 69 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 6 5 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 78 79 79 79 78 77 75 69 62 57 51 48 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 17 19 20 25 27 27 26 25 22 18 15 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 20 35 33 52 64 61 52 48 30 8 -3 3 10 -8 -39 200 MB DIV 131 86 89 76 69 78 53 26 8 -17 -6 -24 -20 -24 -23 -16 -23 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -4 -5 -4 -7 -2 -6 -2 -4 3 -2 7 8 22 23 LAND (KM) 670 576 484 428 376 376 408 488 466 522 624 709 803 934 1134 1346 1415 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 7 7 6 8 9 10 8 8 9 9 10 14 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 13 14 15 21 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. 25. 23. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 16. 21. 22. 20. 15. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 14. 18. 28. 37. 43. 43. 38. 30. 22. 14. 7. 3. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.6 107.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 7.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.2% 3.5% 4.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 1.5% 0.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 7.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##