* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/07/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 33 41 47 52 54 50 45 37 31 25 21 19 16 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 33 41 47 52 54 50 45 37 31 25 21 19 16 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 24 24 24 24 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 13 18 16 17 17 13 10 7 6 9 9 8 11 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 7 4 2 4 1 3 6 4 4 1 1 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 54 38 41 40 45 57 66 68 59 89 78 95 163 186 229 239 229 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.2 26.5 25.3 24.4 22.6 21.5 21.2 20.4 20.6 21.5 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 146 147 142 136 128 116 107 89 77 75 67 69 78 82 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -50.7 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 80 81 80 77 70 69 65 61 55 54 49 46 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 17 19 20 21 26 27 27 26 24 21 17 13 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 16 26 32 42 53 73 94 114 116 97 88 78 68 74 44 6 -26 200 MB DIV 91 90 87 89 62 79 37 13 -16 -28 -3 -15 -12 0 -16 13 -6 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 -8 -7 -9 -8 -6 -2 0 2 3 7 14 21 26 19 LAND (KM) 622 594 582 579 606 704 719 759 853 915 1009 1085 1208 1400 1530 1648 1795 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.2 19.0 20.0 21.1 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.2 107.7 108.4 109.2 110.9 112.8 114.6 116.5 118.4 120.5 122.8 125.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 11 14 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 811 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 27. 24. 21. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 14. 9. 3. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 21. 27. 32. 34. 30. 25. 17. 11. 5. 1. -1. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.0 107.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##