* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/07/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 43 49 54 58 58 53 44 37 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 43 49 54 58 58 53 44 37 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 41 43 46 46 43 38 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 17 17 14 16 15 18 17 12 4 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 4 4 6 4 3 5 7 11 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 34 38 50 46 56 66 82 97 118 104 115 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 27.9 26.8 25.6 24.7 23.3 21.3 20.9 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 148 148 143 132 119 110 96 75 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 81 80 79 78 75 71 65 59 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 24 25 27 25 22 19 15 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 36 41 53 63 65 75 72 58 56 40 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 77 74 72 87 60 20 18 -21 -15 -6 -35 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -6 -7 -9 -10 -4 -7 0 -3 9 0 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 541 509 473 473 493 583 585 581 667 746 861 964 1068 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 9 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 14 15 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 815 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 16. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 9. 10. 8. 2. -3. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 24. 28. 28. 23. 14. 7. -1. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 106.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 17.0% 13.8% 10.8% 0.0% 15.2% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.7% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 2.3% 3.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.4% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% 5.9% 4.8% 0.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 23.0% 12.0% 5.0% 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/07/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##