* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/08/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 45 49 51 49 43 35 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 45 49 51 49 43 35 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 35 33 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 20 22 20 14 15 18 19 16 11 13 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 3 0 1 5 1 2 8 8 5 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 33 50 56 60 58 62 90 112 110 105 147 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.4 26.2 25.4 23.7 23.2 21.5 21.2 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 146 146 138 125 117 100 94 76 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 81 81 81 76 75 69 64 57 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 21 21 22 22 20 18 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 37 46 43 61 71 85 76 67 48 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 73 70 84 78 37 16 -10 -12 0 -8 -23 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -7 -8 -11 -6 -8 0 0 2 1 3 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 507 503 514 551 593 648 634 674 762 848 920 1017 1143 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 11 13 14 13 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 15. 19. 21. 19. 13. 5. -3. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.1 106.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/08/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.05 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 12.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/08/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##