* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/08/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 39 41 41 39 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 39 41 41 39 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 13 9 15 14 17 16 12 9 11 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 3 3 3 2 4 6 7 6 0 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 53 49 45 41 62 76 95 104 101 118 158 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 26.7 25.7 24.5 23.6 22.7 21.3 21.3 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 146 143 130 120 108 98 89 74 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 81 79 79 79 75 72 67 61 58 53 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 22 24 23 26 23 21 19 15 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 48 49 59 68 77 74 65 43 23 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 85 85 86 51 8 3 -16 8 -11 -15 -6 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -9 -9 -11 -12 -6 -7 0 -1 4 2 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 493 504 530 567 606 606 626 710 808 903 947 1063 1248 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 12 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 15. 15. 13. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -8. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 11. 9. 3. -5. -13. -20. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 107.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/08/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 16.5% 12.6% 9.1% 0.0% 12.4% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.5% 4.4% 3.1% 0.0% 4.3% 3.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/08/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##