* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/08/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 37 36 32 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 37 36 32 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 26 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 12 12 13 11 14 14 11 10 11 9 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 3 3 0 3 9 6 4 2 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 54 49 42 39 65 91 92 76 100 126 174 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.0 25.9 25.2 23.5 22.8 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 139 134 122 115 98 91 75 74 73 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 79 79 74 74 69 62 54 52 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 23 22 24 24 23 20 16 13 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 43 36 58 61 76 89 73 69 60 51 53 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 91 84 45 24 4 -15 -13 2 2 -15 -2 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -8 -14 -8 -8 -1 1 1 4 4 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 494 530 578 623 618 601 691 758 894 984 1071 1210 1419 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 9 9 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. -0. -5. -10. -15. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 2. -5. -13. -21. -26. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 107.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/08/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 16.6% 12.6% 9.2% 0.0% 12.2% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.0% 4.3% 3.1% 0.0% 4.1% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/08/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##