* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/08/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 30 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 30 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 17 14 16 16 15 12 8 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 4 1 3 5 5 6 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 48 36 50 54 61 80 89 94 118 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.6 25.9 24.6 23.6 22.8 21.4 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 141 134 129 122 109 98 90 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 81 79 79 77 72 70 66 61 57 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 21 23 22 21 20 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 40 50 65 70 78 82 62 47 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 78 44 12 3 12 -32 -3 -6 -19 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -7 -13 -6 -9 -9 -1 -2 1 0 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 544 590 643 659 652 683 772 816 903 962 1040 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -11. -14. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -7. -13. -20. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.9 108.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/08/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.12 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 10.1% 8.2% 5.1% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.8% 2.8% 1.7% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/08/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##