* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/09/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 29 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 29 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 17 15 17 12 9 10 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 0 2 3 5 6 1 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 37 47 54 63 71 78 84 108 141 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.3 23.7 23.2 21.5 21.0 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 134 129 123 116 99 94 76 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 78 78 76 74 73 68 64 58 56 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 21 21 19 18 15 12 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 54 62 68 71 91 69 61 36 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 50 26 18 22 1 8 5 0 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -12 -6 -9 -8 -4 -1 0 2 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 601 645 642 629 635 690 762 857 920 987 1059 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -10. -15. -20. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -23. -30. -35. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 109.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/09/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.19 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 10.9% 8.5% 5.4% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.0% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/09/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##