* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/10/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 16 17 18 12 14 16 19 24 26 31 34 34 35 39 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 7 8 7 7 7 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 1 0 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 77 83 92 96 110 129 137 173 201 220 221 224 227 228 215 206 200 SST (C) 25.6 25.2 23.9 22.5 21.9 20.3 20.2 19.7 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.0 19.4 18.8 17.5 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 103 88 82 65 64 62 62 62 64 64 61 60 60 59 59 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 61 57 51 44 39 34 30 27 27 28 29 29 29 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 13 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 90 84 78 75 69 81 75 34 -7 -41 -73 -95 -121 -107 -95 -75 200 MB DIV 19 23 -12 -15 -8 5 2 2 7 -13 0 4 27 17 10 10 19 700-850 TADV -4 -4 1 1 1 8 8 8 21 26 32 33 30 15 -3 -20 -42 LAND (KM) 550 568 606 648 715 818 922 1084 1164 1226 1315 1363 1312 1170 1011 871 749 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.3 22.4 23.7 24.9 26.1 27.1 28.3 29.7 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.3 115.4 116.7 118.0 120.6 123.0 125.4 127.8 130.1 132.4 134.2 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -12. -16. -17. -13. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. 2. -0. -4. -10. -20. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -19. -19. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -10. -18. -28. -36. -42. -46. -49. -52. -56. -60. -64. -66. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.1 113.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/10/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/10/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##