* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/10/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 17 18 18 16 20 23 29 28 28 31 34 38 43 47 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 6 1 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 3 1 2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 91 94 105 111 129 154 192 207 221 225 210 211 203 209 204 206 SST (C) 25.2 24.2 22.3 21.1 20.4 19.9 19.1 19.2 18.6 18.8 18.7 18.6 18.1 17.2 16.6 16.3 16.3 POT. INT. (KT) 115 106 86 74 67 62 62 62 61 61 60 61 60 59 58 57 57 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 62 59 54 47 40 36 31 30 28 29 27 24 22 23 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 9 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 73 58 59 61 60 59 20 -34 -41 -75 -90 -102 -89 -85 -60 -65 200 MB DIV 21 -23 -22 -23 1 10 -9 7 5 -3 -1 20 13 20 23 23 11 700-850 TADV -4 2 5 1 1 10 8 28 31 36 27 19 6 -15 -22 -34 -31 LAND (KM) 522 531 537 586 638 717 868 934 940 1004 1038 1012 900 787 698 650 617 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.0 22.7 24.4 25.9 27.4 28.7 29.8 31.1 32.7 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.5 115.7 117.0 118.4 121.1 123.5 125.8 127.8 129.7 131.2 132.1 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 14 15 14 13 12 10 9 9 9 7 5 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. 6. 4. 3. -2. -1. 5. 16. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 8. 5. 5. 2. -3. -12. -26. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. -13. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -17. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -16. -16. -16. -16. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -25. -29. -30. -32. -35. -36. -39. -43. -44. -44. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.7 113.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/10/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.99 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/10/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##