* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 07/10/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 23 31 39 53 64 72 75 80 85 85 81 81 79 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 23 31 39 53 64 72 75 80 85 85 81 81 79 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 34 41 52 61 65 65 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 18 18 21 12 13 12 9 6 4 3 1 3 6 1 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 3 1 4 8 1 0 -2 0 0 5 2 5 10 1 SHEAR DIR 33 20 21 18 21 19 49 71 55 51 26 1 123 291 228 185 185 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.0 29.9 29.8 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.1 27.2 27.1 26.3 25.7 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 166 165 164 149 146 146 150 148 147 136 136 135 126 120 107 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 78 76 79 82 83 81 78 74 71 70 67 63 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 11 11 14 16 19 19 21 23 25 23 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -19 -18 -18 -20 0 2 22 29 29 34 32 31 14 4 -9 -20 200 MB DIV 105 106 106 105 99 65 93 66 53 36 8 20 36 17 2 -16 10 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 5 4 6 3 5 -1 -3 -2 -3 -6 -4 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 609 610 624 621 635 668 754 893 1065 1242 1483 1711 1924 2101 2207 2292 2315 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.9 100.2 101.5 102.8 105.5 108.4 111.2 114.2 117.4 120.5 123.4 125.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 14 13 14 15 14 15 16 15 14 11 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 30 35 30 29 31 12 10 15 19 9 10 4 4 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 9. 20. 31. 39. 44. 49. 53. 55. 57. 58. 57. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. 0. 3. 5. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. 18. 14. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 11. 19. 33. 44. 52. 55. 60. 65. 65. 62. 61. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.3 97.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 07/10/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 3.0% 14.2% 31.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2.3% Consensus: 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 4.8% 11.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 07/10/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##