* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 07/10/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 36 48 63 75 79 86 91 92 88 84 83 79 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 36 48 63 75 79 86 91 92 88 84 83 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 36 41 47 55 65 72 73 70 64 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 21 14 12 7 6 3 4 5 3 2 1 4 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 2 6 8 1 2 3 1 -1 -3 1 4 4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 14 12 25 23 26 42 77 43 18 323 358 39 38 304 294 221 269 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.5 28.0 28.3 28.1 27.6 26.4 27.2 27.0 26.0 25.1 23.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 167 162 156 151 146 150 148 143 129 136 133 123 115 103 100 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 75 77 81 83 83 80 75 73 71 67 64 64 64 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 10 11 13 15 18 20 20 24 26 27 25 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -20 -21 -7 -1 -1 9 17 25 28 28 29 17 6 -15 -26 -19 200 MB DIV 93 90 73 50 66 89 75 47 42 21 13 47 0 -5 -9 -2 -8 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 4 8 4 6 -4 -3 -4 -2 -8 -1 3 5 2 2 LAND (KM) 664 685 686 696 706 774 900 1069 1251 1523 1792 2026 2168 2214 2247 2239 1960 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.3 13.1 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.2 13.7 13.1 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.2 101.5 102.8 104.1 105.4 108.2 111.1 114.3 117.8 121.3 124.5 126.9 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 17 17 17 14 10 8 9 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 32 34 19 14 16 17 8 6 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 10. 20. 29. 37. 42. 46. 49. 51. 52. 51. 49. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 17. 17. 22. 24. 22. 18. 13. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 23. 38. 50. 54. 61. 66. 67. 63. 59. 58. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 100.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 07/10/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.90 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.05 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2% 2.4% 11.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.9% 5.0% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 07/10/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##