* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 07/11/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 54 67 80 87 91 94 92 88 85 83 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 54 67 80 87 91 94 92 88 85 83 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 31 35 39 45 53 61 69 73 72 66 60 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 20 14 11 9 2 5 2 4 5 6 4 4 4 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 3 5 7 5 2 2 1 2 -2 -3 -1 0 1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 7 12 15 9 12 67 307 17 353 350 36 60 35 274 281 264 247 SST (C) 29.7 30.0 29.6 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.3 27.1 27.1 26.1 25.1 24.3 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 167 163 155 152 148 151 147 141 129 135 134 125 115 107 104 103 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 74 77 78 80 84 81 82 76 74 70 67 63 62 62 62 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 12 13 15 18 20 23 25 26 27 25 23 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -24 -13 -2 -4 3 1 16 26 31 25 15 4 -6 -19 -19 -8 200 MB DIV 92 69 64 57 75 80 69 22 35 16 12 -2 10 -4 0 -10 -17 700-850 TADV 9 5 4 7 4 3 -2 -4 -1 -5 -6 -2 2 2 7 4 4 LAND (KM) 692 701 706 709 721 819 1019 1178 1462 1761 2027 2190 2277 2334 2120 1830 1497 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.8 13.7 14.3 14.7 14.6 13.9 13.2 12.9 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 102.7 104.1 105.5 106.9 109.9 113.3 117.1 120.9 124.3 127.0 128.9 130.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 16 18 19 18 16 11 9 10 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 26 32 34 18 14 11 21 7 5 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 3. 10. 20. 29. 37. 41. 45. 48. 50. 50. 49. 48. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 14. 20. 23. 24. 24. 19. 15. 12. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 17. 29. 42. 55. 62. 66. 69. 67. 63. 60. 58. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 101.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 07/11/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.88 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 5.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 2.7% 6.9% 19.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 4.0% 1.3% Consensus: 0.2% 7.4% 4.8% 0.3% 0.0% 5.7% 8.2% 7.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 7.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 07/11/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##