* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942023 07/11/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 45 56 66 76 85 89 90 86 82 76 74 71 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 45 56 66 76 85 89 90 86 82 76 74 71 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 45 52 62 72 79 81 77 70 63 58 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 17 12 6 10 8 8 1 5 4 3 1 4 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 6 1 -1 0 0 -3 2 0 0 0 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 26 29 25 37 48 328 12 343 328 12 184 212 225 226 202 219 232 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.7 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.4 26.6 25.8 25.3 24.3 24.0 24.3 24.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 156 156 153 144 147 149 150 131 123 119 108 104 107 112 118 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 77 79 79 82 83 85 82 79 75 71 63 58 55 57 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 14 18 20 22 26 28 28 26 23 20 18 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -6 -6 -3 1 14 22 22 17 12 9 6 18 4 -6 -16 -10 200 MB DIV 46 40 49 68 49 53 56 60 11 13 14 9 -4 -21 -15 7 4 700-850 TADV 5 4 2 1 4 -4 -7 -5 -3 1 2 11 9 3 1 4 5 LAND (KM) 812 859 933 1006 1086 1300 1417 1537 1718 1846 1978 2145 2162 1847 1588 1250 836 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 15 17 17 13 13 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 30 15 17 18 23 16 9 12 16 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 12. 21. 29. 36. 40. 43. 45. 45. 44. 41. 40. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 24. 23. 19. 14. 9. 6. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 15. 26. 36. 46. 55. 59. 60. 56. 52. 46. 44. 41. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.2 105.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP942023 INVEST 07/11/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.28 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 18.6% 14.8% 11.7% 0.0% 17.0% 14.5% 9.7% Logistic: 0.8% 8.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 4.4% 22.0% 44.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% Consensus: 3.3% 11.4% 5.9% 4.3% 0.1% 7.4% 12.5% 18.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 11.0% 16.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942023 INVEST 07/11/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##