* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032023 07/11/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 41 47 56 66 72 75 76 77 73 69 65 62 59 56 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 41 47 56 66 72 75 76 77 73 69 65 62 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 36 41 47 55 60 63 64 61 56 52 49 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 19 14 8 8 10 11 9 4 8 7 5 5 9 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 2 6 -2 2 0 -4 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 31 33 44 57 41 10 344 295 306 200 194 153 190 203 225 219 218 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.3 27.9 26.2 25.6 25.2 24.0 23.9 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 150 148 147 149 145 127 121 117 105 103 104 109 111 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 83 81 81 81 77 75 71 65 58 56 54 52 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 14 17 18 21 21 22 23 24 22 19 17 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -8 0 0 3 9 20 24 21 12 13 9 17 10 13 11 13 1 200 MB DIV 45 47 49 52 45 53 57 49 -5 22 8 3 -22 -13 0 -10 12 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 2 0 -4 -7 -7 -2 -1 2 10 4 4 2 4 10 LAND (KM) 770 848 920 1013 1121 1256 1401 1559 1699 1856 2028 2221 2009 1673 1341 1009 681 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 13 14 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 21 24 9 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 11. 19. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. 39. 37. 36. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 13. 9. 5. 2. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 11. 17. 26. 36. 42. 45. 46. 47. 43. 39. 35. 32. 29. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 107.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 THREE 07/11/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.76 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 17.4% 13.3% 10.0% 0.0% 15.0% 14.1% 8.9% Logistic: 3.2% 32.8% 9.2% 5.6% 2.1% 15.9% 14.8% 21.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 0.2% Consensus: 3.6% 19.2% 7.9% 5.3% 0.7% 10.9% 10.2% 10.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 18.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 18.0% 11.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 THREE 07/11/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##