* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/12/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 33 37 42 47 47 47 46 43 44 42 44 45 48 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 33 37 42 47 47 47 46 43 44 42 44 45 48 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 28 28 29 28 28 27 28 28 28 28 29 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 36 36 34 34 24 15 17 22 12 15 14 20 19 16 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -1 0 -3 -1 -2 4 1 2 -1 0 -4 -6 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 354 1 360 354 344 326 310 311 297 315 307 298 335 327 305 322 324 SST (C) 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.9 26.9 26.4 25.0 24.4 23.3 22.3 21.9 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 106 109 112 115 117 124 124 119 108 103 95 88 86 83 82 81 81 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -56.4 -56.7 -57.2 -57.3 -57.4 -57.1 -57.2 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 55 54 55 53 48 53 60 51 51 49 50 47 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 12 13 15 18 21 20 20 20 18 17 16 16 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 24 36 49 49 55 67 86 80 42 -7 -36 -40 -38 -37 -50 -74 -127 200 MB DIV -11 -2 2 15 24 31 24 40 21 14 -4 -3 -19 -10 -43 -11 7 700-850 TADV 10 14 15 13 4 4 1 9 25 24 13 8 2 0 -3 2 9 LAND (KM) 1180 1224 1302 1383 1487 1733 1929 1932 1739 1510 1420 1534 1752 1923 1840 1787 1678 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 35.6 34.9 34.2 33.3 31.2 29.7 30.3 33.0 36.5 39.1 40.1 39.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.3 53.7 53.0 52.4 51.8 50.3 48.1 45.5 43.1 41.0 39.0 36.3 33.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 11 12 11 14 19 18 13 11 10 6 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 7. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 2. 2. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 6. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 22. 22. 21. 18. 19. 17. 19. 20. 23. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.0 54.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/12/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.99 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 8.5% 6.3% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.0% 2.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/12/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/12/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 30 33 37 42 47 47 47 46 43 44 42 44 45 48 52 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 35 40 45 45 45 44 41 42 40 42 43 46 50 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 33 38 38 38 37 34 35 33 35 36 39 43 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 29 29 29 28 25 26 24 26 27 30 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT