* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032023 07/12/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 47 52 63 73 78 81 80 74 72 67 65 60 58 57 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 47 52 63 73 78 81 80 74 72 67 65 60 58 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 38 44 52 60 66 68 66 63 60 56 54 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 12 10 8 6 10 5 4 4 5 5 5 10 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 4 2 -1 -3 -3 0 2 1 0 -3 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 40 45 58 36 15 13 326 298 28 172 189 205 192 171 196 203 188 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.8 28.1 28.3 27.5 26.3 25.4 24.6 24.2 24.1 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 147 144 147 149 141 128 119 111 107 106 109 110 112 118 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -52.3 -51.4 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 80 82 80 81 84 80 79 72 67 59 55 50 49 44 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 20 20 22 24 25 26 25 22 22 18 17 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 1 12 17 32 35 30 28 27 24 32 37 37 25 14 0 200 MB DIV 51 48 44 37 35 34 101 20 4 0 -18 -3 -13 -3 -9 6 28 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 3 1 -6 -9 -3 2 -4 2 1 3 3 2 3 10 LAND (KM) 858 940 1040 1147 1225 1359 1523 1681 1865 2028 2205 2089 1725 1372 1019 679 325 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.1 15.9 16.4 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.7 110.2 111.7 113.2 114.6 117.4 120.2 123.1 126.1 129.1 132.1 135.3 138.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 23 24 13 9 11 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 19. 27. 33. 36. 38. 40. 39. 38. 36. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 14. 16. 15. 11. 10. 5. 3. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 17. 22. 33. 43. 48. 51. 50. 44. 42. 37. 35. 30. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 108.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 THREE 07/12/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 20.4% 15.2% 11.7% 0.0% 16.4% 15.7% 9.6% Logistic: 11.3% 55.7% 20.8% 14.2% 5.5% 24.4% 18.2% 23.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 17.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 31.3% 12.8% 8.9% 1.9% 14.5% 11.9% 10.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 28.0% 13.0% 9.0% 6.0% 21.0% 16.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 THREE 07/12/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##