* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/12/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 49 48 48 46 44 46 45 51 53 57 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 45 49 48 48 46 44 46 45 51 53 57 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 29 30 29 29 30 31 33 34 34 33 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 31 30 35 32 18 17 14 19 11 10 19 16 18 22 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 -3 -5 -3 0 3 0 0 0 -9 -7 -4 -3 -8 -2 SHEAR DIR 360 1 355 344 340 299 302 296 305 306 299 312 314 303 318 311 313 SST (C) 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.8 25.4 24.5 24.2 22.5 22.0 21.4 21.3 20.9 20.3 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 111 114 117 117 120 122 122 111 105 101 89 86 82 81 80 80 79 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.6 -55.1 -55.2 -56.0 -56.3 -56.8 -56.9 -56.9 -56.6 -57.1 -57.1 -57.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 57 58 59 58 52 52 59 53 46 48 52 51 48 53 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 14 16 22 23 22 22 22 20 20 20 23 22 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 28 40 39 44 55 76 74 68 5 -21 -39 -18 -7 -18 -53 -87 -122 200 MB DIV -3 0 31 26 17 46 21 44 18 -7 -9 -11 -13 -18 -10 -23 9 700-850 TADV 14 15 12 9 9 6 8 14 34 22 13 8 6 5 8 13 9 LAND (KM) 1290 1369 1461 1555 1661 1862 1942 1825 1580 1401 1402 1539 1698 1776 1822 1670 1428 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 34.3 33.5 32.7 31.8 30.2 29.9 31.7 35.0 38.2 40.0 40.6 40.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.6 53.0 52.3 51.5 50.8 49.0 46.7 44.3 42.3 40.4 38.3 35.8 33.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 16 19 15 11 9 6 5 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 7. 6. 5. 7. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 11. 11. 10. 7. 7. 5. 8. 6. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 24. 23. 23. 22. 19. 21. 20. 26. 28. 32. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.0 53.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/12/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.40 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 9.6% 6.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.5% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/12/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/12/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 37 45 49 48 48 46 44 46 45 51 53 57 61 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 34 42 46 45 45 43 41 43 42 48 50 54 58 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 36 40 39 39 37 35 37 36 42 44 48 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 30 29 29 27 25 27 26 32 34 38 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT