* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/12/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 43 42 41 40 39 39 39 43 48 50 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 43 42 41 40 39 39 39 43 48 50 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 27 27 26 26 26 27 28 30 31 31 31 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 29 33 34 30 17 17 19 11 13 9 16 16 17 24 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 -1 -1 0 0 -1 2 1 -3 0 -6 -6 -2 -5 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 354 345 341 334 325 287 296 290 324 318 298 307 306 319 336 338 305 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.6 26.7 26.8 25.8 24.5 24.0 22.8 22.0 21.9 21.4 20.9 21.0 21.0 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 115 120 120 122 113 104 100 91 86 85 82 79 80 82 81 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.4 -55.7 -56.3 -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -57.1 -56.9 -56.9 -56.5 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 60 56 57 60 60 57 56 56 57 47 48 49 47 49 54 60 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 18 22 22 21 21 20 19 18 18 19 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 38 46 56 78 65 27 -9 -41 -37 -31 -21 -14 -30 -85 -85 200 MB DIV -6 16 18 12 19 38 40 29 24 -1 0 -24 -8 -33 -24 -12 10 700-850 TADV 16 10 9 8 12 4 12 20 20 15 7 3 3 4 13 15 17 LAND (KM) 1405 1499 1596 1694 1772 1887 1832 1626 1405 1278 1303 1407 1510 1579 1674 1803 1539 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 33.2 32.4 31.6 31.0 30.3 31.4 34.1 37.2 39.7 41.1 41.5 41.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.4 51.6 50.7 49.9 49.1 47.2 45.0 43.2 41.8 40.5 38.7 36.9 35.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 9 13 16 16 11 8 6 5 4 6 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 13 CX,CY: 8/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 5. 4. 6. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -1. -0. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 14. 14. 18. 23. 25. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.0 52.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/12/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.41 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 9.1% 6.6% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.3% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/12/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/12/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 35 41 43 42 41 40 39 39 39 43 48 50 55 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 41 40 39 38 37 37 37 41 46 48 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 35 34 33 32 31 31 31 35 40 42 47 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 26 25 24 23 22 22 22 26 31 33 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT