* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/12/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 57 62 67 77 81 85 83 77 69 64 60 56 54 54 53 V (KT) LAND 45 52 57 62 67 77 81 85 83 77 69 64 60 56 54 54 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 61 65 72 76 76 73 67 60 54 50 47 44 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 10 8 8 8 8 0 4 4 6 8 9 8 17 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 6 3 1 -1 0 -3 1 3 2 0 3 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 55 24 338 333 343 323 296 126 179 193 207 175 210 214 219 216 207 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 27.6 26.1 25.4 25.0 24.1 23.9 24.2 24.8 25.3 25.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 150 151 152 142 126 119 115 106 104 107 113 118 116 126 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 81 78 77 79 82 80 80 74 69 62 58 53 51 48 50 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 18 19 23 24 25 25 23 20 18 16 13 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 5 7 14 26 26 33 28 22 31 32 37 33 23 8 10 200 MB DIV 31 23 24 25 35 72 29 11 4 1 -16 -17 -12 -15 -13 23 17 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 0 -2 -9 -2 6 -2 2 -2 2 3 3 13 15 12 LAND (KM) 1025 1130 1223 1273 1336 1494 1653 1825 2005 2202 2115 1769 1425 1092 757 381 -7 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.9 114.3 115.7 117.0 119.8 122.7 125.7 128.7 131.8 135.1 138.3 141.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 16 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 16 12 11 13 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 24. 22. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 9. 5. 2. -0. -4. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 22. 32. 37. 40. 38. 32. 24. 19. 15. 11. 9. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.6 111.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/12/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.60 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 23.2% 18.7% 16.0% 10.6% 22.1% 18.2% 9.3% Logistic: 19.6% 56.5% 27.3% 19.5% 5.6% 22.5% 17.7% 21.0% Bayesian: 13.9% 54.3% 13.1% 6.0% 5.0% 18.5% 6.1% 0.0% Consensus: 15.9% 44.7% 19.7% 13.8% 7.1% 21.0% 14.0% 10.1% DTOPS: 23.0% 50.0% 29.0% 16.0% 8.0% 31.0% 27.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/12/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##