* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 42 47 48 46 46 43 42 41 38 41 44 48 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 42 47 48 46 46 43 42 41 38 41 44 48 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 35 35 34 33 31 31 31 32 34 35 35 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 36 36 30 23 17 13 14 10 6 14 14 16 23 23 30 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 -2 1 0 1 2 2 5 4 0 -2 -5 -5 -6 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 351 344 334 325 308 295 293 315 26 360 321 325 316 320 356 7 1 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.7 25.5 24.6 23.7 22.3 21.8 21.8 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 117 120 120 120 111 105 98 88 85 85 85 87 88 89 88 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.8 -55.9 -56.2 -56.0 -56.4 -56.6 -56.5 -56.4 -56.1 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 57 58 54 53 57 50 43 47 50 51 49 45 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 19 20 24 23 22 22 21 19 18 16 17 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 43 55 67 68 69 10 -17 -25 -28 -23 3 2 -6 -23 -43 200 MB DIV 6 9 4 21 24 14 46 10 5 3 -23 -8 -38 -34 -51 -21 -17 700-850 TADV 10 8 10 9 10 7 15 32 17 12 13 0 -4 -9 -6 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1477 1562 1658 1733 1799 1857 1763 1543 1336 1274 1385 1565 1707 1774 1787 1788 1817 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 32.7 31.9 31.3 30.8 30.6 32.0 34.9 38.2 40.3 40.8 40.3 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.6 50.8 50.1 49.5 48.8 47.1 45.2 43.3 41.5 39.9 37.8 35.7 34.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 14 18 16 9 9 8 5 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 12. 17. 18. 16. 16. 14. 12. 11. 8. 11. 14. 18. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.4 51.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.39 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 9.4% 6.8% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.4% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/12/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/12/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 42 47 48 46 46 43 42 41 38 41 44 48 53 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 39 44 45 43 43 40 39 38 35 38 41 45 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 37 38 36 36 33 32 31 28 31 34 38 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 28 26 26 23 22 21 18 21 24 28 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT