* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/12/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 72 78 84 87 88 80 73 66 60 56 51 49 47 49 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 72 78 84 87 88 80 73 66 60 56 51 49 47 47 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 69 74 78 83 83 79 74 66 58 53 49 45 41 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 5 7 6 5 4 6 7 13 14 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 1 0 -1 0 -4 0 2 7 5 4 1 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 32 347 347 347 338 312 282 142 157 170 182 179 194 202 206 189 184 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.3 26.2 25.7 25.5 24.4 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.1 25.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 150 152 153 149 127 122 120 109 104 107 112 115 116 119 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 81 80 81 78 72 65 60 54 50 49 48 47 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 19 22 23 25 25 23 21 19 17 14 12 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 11 9 13 18 27 30 35 38 35 43 41 47 49 44 28 22 11 200 MB DIV 21 28 38 45 38 56 -1 3 -18 -16 1 -2 -13 -8 -1 14 24 700-850 TADV 3 2 -1 -4 -6 -6 3 -1 -1 4 -1 6 3 8 19 14 12 LAND (KM) 1142 1231 1295 1358 1434 1608 1769 1939 2160 2266 1912 1575 1234 881 526 163 75 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.0 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.5 115.9 117.3 118.7 121.5 124.5 127.5 130.7 133.8 137.0 140.1 143.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 24 15 11 11 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 14. 12. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 7. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 23. 29. 32. 33. 26. 18. 11. 5. 1. -4. -6. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.7 113.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/12/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 8.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.7% 40.3% 31.1% 22.6% 13.1% 25.5% 16.7% 7.6% Logistic: 17.1% 40.8% 17.8% 13.2% 3.7% 13.1% 10.0% 11.6% Bayesian: 12.8% 34.7% 11.8% 5.8% 2.7% 9.1% 1.4% 0.0% Consensus: 17.2% 38.6% 20.2% 13.8% 6.5% 15.9% 9.4% 6.4% DTOPS: 31.0% 50.0% 44.0% 31.0% 18.0% 45.0% 13.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/12/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##