* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/13/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 77 82 88 93 92 83 74 65 59 54 49 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 77 82 88 93 92 83 74 65 59 54 49 47 41 46 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 75 79 83 82 78 73 66 59 54 49 45 41 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 11 8 4 3 2 0 7 6 6 9 16 16 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 1 2 5 3 3 0 5 4 3 SHEAR DIR 336 348 333 330 322 299 64 59 234 231 223 213 199 218 203 194 164 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 27.8 26.2 25.4 25.0 24.1 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.3 25.1 25.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 152 152 153 144 127 119 115 106 104 107 113 118 116 124 134 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 76 79 81 80 81 81 74 71 63 59 55 54 49 48 48 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 25 25 26 28 27 24 22 19 17 14 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 15 19 24 26 39 36 33 37 38 50 52 42 24 7 5 200 MB DIV 27 26 48 35 56 42 29 -8 -2 -1 6 -7 -24 -12 23 10 17 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -3 -8 -10 -1 3 -4 4 -1 5 7 2 8 10 10 5 LAND (KM) 1240 1290 1354 1420 1496 1648 1832 1998 2195 2133 1801 1425 1007 636 301 -20 64 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 115.6 117.0 118.3 119.6 122.5 125.6 128.5 131.8 134.9 138.0 141.5 145.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 15 16 18 18 16 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 11 12 13 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 8. 7. 4. 2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 22. 28. 33. 32. 23. 14. 5. -1. -6. -11. -13. -14. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.5 114.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/13/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.48 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.45 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.1% 38.4% 28.3% 21.5% 13.6% 22.7% 15.6% 7.0% Logistic: 20.1% 45.5% 19.6% 14.4% 5.2% 13.1% 5.7% 5.5% Bayesian: 10.9% 35.7% 12.4% 5.6% 4.0% 11.1% 1.6% 0.0% Consensus: 17.0% 39.9% 20.1% 13.8% 7.6% 15.7% 7.6% 4.2% DTOPS: 35.0% 51.0% 34.0% 28.0% 19.0% 24.0% 7.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/13/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##