* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/13/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 41 43 44 42 41 40 38 41 39 41 43 48 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 41 43 44 42 41 40 38 41 39 41 43 48 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 31 31 30 29 29 29 30 32 33 34 36 37 Storm Type EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 36 27 23 18 20 17 14 8 5 10 15 14 13 10 24 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 0 -1 0 0 2 0 4 -2 -3 -2 -1 -4 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 339 323 310 306 317 299 319 327 312 299 301 300 355 11 29 43 65 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.3 25.2 24.6 22.7 22.7 22.5 22.5 22.4 22.2 23.3 23.8 24.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 119 120 120 116 108 104 91 89 87 87 87 86 92 95 98 101 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 -55.9 -55.8 -55.9 -56.5 -56.9 -56.9 -55.8 -55.1 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 1 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 54 55 55 57 50 47 50 52 51 50 45 45 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 22 24 24 23 23 22 20 19 17 19 18 18 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 36 47 55 69 59 53 16 -15 -26 -29 -26 -8 -5 0 0 -5 -16 200 MB DIV -5 11 37 24 -2 40 5 -3 -17 -8 -19 -27 -52 -31 -21 -11 -9 700-850 TADV 9 9 11 5 9 14 22 18 9 11 1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1711 1801 1850 1860 1841 1666 1424 1191 1037 1032 1130 1242 1335 1357 1358 1330 1324 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 30.8 30.5 30.6 31.0 33.1 35.9 38.7 40.9 42.0 42.1 41.4 40.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.5 48.7 47.9 47.0 46.1 44.7 43.8 43.3 42.9 41.8 40.3 39.3 39.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 8 9 14 14 13 8 6 6 5 7 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -3. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 12. 11. 10. 8. 11. 9. 11. 13. 18. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 49.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/13/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.39 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 11.0% 7.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.0% 2.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/13/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/13/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 41 43 44 42 41 40 38 41 39 41 43 48 54 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 38 40 41 39 38 37 35 38 36 38 40 45 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 34 35 33 32 31 29 32 30 32 34 39 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 25 23 22 21 19 22 20 22 24 29 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT