* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/13/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 70 74 80 86 84 78 68 62 57 52 49 48 48 49 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 70 74 80 86 84 78 68 62 57 52 49 48 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 68 70 73 72 70 66 60 53 48 44 40 37 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 14 9 7 4 1 4 5 8 7 7 14 13 17 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 1 4 5 5 1 2 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 343 338 329 320 325 299 46 237 198 263 231 235 219 225 208 196 179 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 26.6 26.1 25.4 24.6 24.1 24.2 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.3 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 153 153 151 131 126 119 111 106 107 111 113 119 119 130 131 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 79 79 76 75 69 65 57 53 50 48 45 45 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 23 25 26 26 25 22 19 17 15 13 11 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 14 15 17 23 28 21 29 29 40 39 36 22 17 2 -4 200 MB DIV 22 36 33 45 52 47 25 -18 -23 -10 8 -4 -8 -2 10 14 14 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -7 -8 -7 0 1 4 0 -1 4 0 3 9 12 8 5 LAND (KM) 1305 1365 1436 1509 1592 1724 1908 2075 2284 2011 1635 1270 927 558 171 52 122 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.9 14.4 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.9 118.2 119.6 121.0 123.8 126.7 129.7 132.8 136.1 139.6 143.0 146.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 17 16 16 17 17 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 13 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 4. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 26. 24. 18. 8. 2. -3. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.4 115.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/13/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.49 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 23.2% 19.3% 16.8% 12.0% 19.8% 14.1% 5.6% Logistic: 3.6% 18.1% 5.3% 3.0% 1.2% 2.8% 2.5% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 6.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 16.0% 8.6% 6.8% 4.5% 8.1% 5.7% 2.5% DTOPS: 19.0% 43.0% 32.0% 27.0% 20.0% 24.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/13/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##