* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 43 43 41 40 39 38 40 40 38 39 42 45 52 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 43 43 41 40 39 38 40 40 38 39 42 45 52 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 39 37 37 35 34 34 34 35 36 36 37 37 37 Storm Type EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 23 18 17 17 16 9 8 5 7 9 11 16 26 30 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 2 0 -2 -4 -5 -7 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 322 302 296 314 311 297 350 349 304 280 264 325 8 4 28 31 57 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.5 23.5 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.3 21.8 22.2 23.0 23.7 23.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 114 112 109 103 96 91 89 88 87 84 86 90 94 95 100 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.9 -56.2 -56.0 -56.3 -56.3 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -55.8 -54.9 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 53 53 54 54 44 44 46 51 51 51 49 51 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 24 24 23 22 21 21 20 19 19 19 18 18 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 52 60 73 60 63 34 3 -20 -21 -19 -6 1 4 0 0 -9 -18 200 MB DIV 5 29 34 13 10 10 17 -15 6 -17 -12 -54 -30 -43 -31 -16 -11 700-850 TADV 11 10 11 11 12 16 15 13 10 2 -3 -3 0 -2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1778 1833 1843 1810 1728 1503 1259 1084 1033 1099 1243 1390 1450 1437 1414 1394 1362 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 30.8 30.9 31.4 32.4 35.0 37.7 39.9 41.3 41.8 41.5 40.6 39.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.2 47.2 46.4 45.7 45.0 44.0 43.7 43.4 42.5 41.0 39.2 37.9 38.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 10 12 14 13 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 5. 5. 3. 4. 7. 10. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 48.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.79 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.43 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 13.4% 9.5% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.1% 3.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/13/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 43 43 41 40 39 38 40 40 38 39 42 45 52 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 40 40 38 37 36 35 37 37 35 36 39 42 49 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 34 32 31 30 29 31 31 29 30 33 36 43 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 24 23 22 21 23 23 21 22 25 28 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT