* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/13/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 77 82 87 88 85 76 66 59 52 48 46 47 49 50 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 77 82 87 88 85 76 66 59 52 48 46 47 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 73 74 75 74 71 65 58 51 46 44 41 40 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 9 8 7 3 6 1 6 5 7 9 11 6 6 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 -3 2 2 4 0 1 0 2 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 344 331 315 303 324 101 99 297 280 282 259 245 255 242 241 196 202 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.8 26.1 25.0 25.2 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.6 25.1 25.1 25.7 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 150 148 144 126 115 117 106 104 105 111 117 117 122 131 132 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 77 79 75 72 67 62 57 55 48 47 42 42 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 24 26 26 25 25 22 20 18 15 13 12 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 10 16 15 15 17 29 27 22 28 29 39 36 26 11 7 -2 -3 200 MB DIV 31 23 44 48 39 66 34 0 -48 9 -6 -14 -13 27 -7 9 2 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -8 -6 -7 1 -1 4 -2 0 4 1 6 10 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1331 1393 1468 1545 1623 1776 1946 2121 2253 1915 1573 1210 824 434 75 134 177 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.8 119.2 120.6 122.0 124.8 127.7 130.6 133.8 136.9 140.1 143.5 147.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 15 16 17 18 17 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -4. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 22. 23. 20. 11. 1. -6. -13. -17. -19. -18. -16. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.6 116.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/13/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.41 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 23.5% 19.0% 16.5% 11.9% 19.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 31.3% 10.1% 7.0% 2.8% 5.4% 2.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 2.0% 14.6% 3.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 23.1% 10.8% 8.3% 5.0% 8.3% 5.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 32.0% 63.0% 48.0% 38.0% 28.0% 29.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/13/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##