* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 47 47 46 46 44 44 43 44 43 45 45 50 55 59 V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 47 47 46 46 44 44 43 44 43 45 45 50 55 59 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 46 45 43 42 41 39 38 38 39 42 45 48 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 20 19 18 17 11 6 8 6 12 8 10 3 3 6 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 0 -1 1 0 1 1 -1 2 -2 0 -3 -6 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 296 293 309 312 304 327 350 342 332 343 327 17 45 104 187 297 360 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.3 24.8 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.3 23.9 23.0 23.4 23.7 24.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 112 108 107 103 101 100 99 98 95 91 94 97 99 106 103 103 105 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 -56.4 -56.8 -56.9 -56.9 -56.4 -55.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 47 47 48 51 51 48 41 42 44 48 49 48 43 40 40 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 23 22 20 20 19 19 17 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 68 75 57 52 56 16 -6 -23 -36 -35 -11 5 35 39 41 49 22 200 MB DIV 6 23 8 9 8 0 -8 0 -9 -15 -34 -45 -44 -25 -13 -3 11 700-850 TADV 12 12 10 11 14 11 15 8 9 4 -2 -3 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1726 1714 1656 1567 1460 1246 1023 887 880 1003 1234 1487 1686 1839 1911 1930 1907 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.4 33.1 34.0 35.1 37.0 38.9 40.2 40.8 40.4 39.0 36.9 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.4 45.4 45.0 44.9 44.8 45.4 46.3 46.6 45.7 44.1 42.1 40.8 40.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 8 10 10 10 8 5 5 9 11 12 9 7 2 1 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 14 CX,CY: 14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. 5. 5. 10. 15. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 32.0 46.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.85 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.5% 8.3% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 4.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.2% 3.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/13/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 46 47 47 46 46 44 44 43 44 43 45 45 50 55 59 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 42 41 41 39 39 38 39 38 40 40 45 50 54 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 36 36 34 34 33 34 33 35 35 40 45 49 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 29 27 27 26 27 26 28 28 33 38 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT