* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/13/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 84 88 91 91 84 73 64 56 50 46 44 42 42 41 V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 84 88 91 91 84 73 64 56 50 46 44 42 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 78 80 81 79 75 70 63 56 50 45 43 40 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 5 1 6 2 2 6 8 7 10 9 10 11 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 0 -4 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 5 2 4 3 SHEAR DIR 337 312 315 342 347 124 173 224 273 246 275 226 234 209 217 209 244 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.9 26.7 25.9 25.2 24.6 24.2 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.3 25.4 26.3 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 145 132 124 117 111 107 104 107 113 119 120 129 132 135 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 78 75 72 70 65 58 56 52 48 45 44 44 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 24 21 19 17 14 12 11 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 23 26 30 37 31 39 37 45 44 43 30 17 8 0 -18 200 MB DIV 21 48 46 43 61 37 19 -18 -26 4 4 -1 8 0 13 10 23 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -7 -5 -1 0 2 0 0 3 -2 0 4 3 0 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 1415 1490 1576 1659 1740 1909 2082 2268 2039 1697 1345 963 548 175 110 268 278 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.5 120.9 122.4 123.8 126.6 129.6 132.6 135.8 139.0 142.3 145.9 149.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 16 18 18 17 15 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -13. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 21. 14. 3. -6. -14. -20. -24. -26. -28. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 12.7 118.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/13/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.34 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 29.1% 20.4% 18.0% 13.0% 19.7% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 12.7% 39.6% 17.5% 13.2% 5.0% 5.5% 1.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 2.5% 12.0% 3.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.8% 26.9% 13.7% 10.8% 6.2% 8.5% 4.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 43.0% 63.0% 48.0% 39.0% 29.0% 17.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/13/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##