* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 48 49 48 47 48 45 44 43 44 44 45 46 47 50 55 V (KT) LAND 45 48 48 49 48 47 48 45 44 43 44 44 45 46 47 50 55 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 49 48 47 45 44 42 41 42 43 45 46 46 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 21 17 18 4 7 7 8 10 10 11 11 4 9 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 0 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 294 305 314 303 298 307 347 344 324 318 335 16 13 346 338 306 266 SST (C) 25.8 25.6 25.2 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.2 22.8 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.2 22.2 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 105 102 101 100 99 98 90 93 96 99 97 96 94 91 87 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -55.9 -56.0 -56.3 -56.6 -57.1 -56.6 -56.4 -55.3 -54.6 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.5 -0.9 -0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 46 45 47 47 44 43 39 42 45 52 53 49 46 50 47 47 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 21 20 20 20 19 18 17 17 18 18 18 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 78 60 56 59 40 16 -6 -26 -29 -4 30 60 67 59 23 67 63 200 MB DIV 21 3 7 14 3 11 -12 -2 -12 -1 -38 -25 -27 24 11 29 22 700-850 TADV 12 11 7 11 11 13 9 7 2 0 -2 0 0 5 5 5 17 LAND (KM) 1649 1587 1528 1449 1373 1186 1028 964 1046 1262 1526 1777 1947 2023 2049 1850 1416 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.4 34.0 34.8 35.5 37.2 38.8 39.9 40.3 39.5 37.8 35.7 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.5 46.1 46.0 45.9 46.0 46.4 46.4 45.6 43.5 41.0 38.9 37.6 36.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 9 7 8 9 11 12 10 6 6 12 20 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. -21. -19. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -19. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.7 46.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.1% 8.8% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.8% 3.3% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/14/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/14/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 48 49 48 47 48 45 44 43 44 44 45 46 47 50 55 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 44 43 44 41 40 39 40 40 41 42 43 46 51 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 40 41 38 37 36 37 37 38 39 40 43 48 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 33 34 31 30 29 30 30 31 32 33 36 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT