* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/14/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 91 94 95 93 91 81 68 59 52 49 46 42 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 86 91 94 95 93 91 81 68 59 52 49 46 42 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 86 89 90 87 81 74 66 59 53 49 47 45 41 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 2 3 3 2 7 7 10 8 12 10 10 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 2 0 1 1 -2 0 -1 0 1 3 9 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 326 325 247 156 142 69 272 273 280 262 235 206 204 190 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.7 26.4 26.2 25.0 25.2 24.1 23.9 24.0 24.7 25.2 25.1 25.8 26.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 143 129 127 115 117 105 104 105 113 118 116 124 132 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 75 74 72 70 65 61 58 53 52 49 48 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 26 27 25 25 22 19 17 14 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 30 33 39 42 29 30 29 25 29 29 19 3 -2 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 45 56 64 59 29 -1 -33 0 0 -3 1 21 35 29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 -1 0 -5 2 0 1 4 -3 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1502 1596 1679 1754 1839 2006 2177 2211 1886 1521 1133 749 384 48 201 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 121.3 122.7 124.1 125.5 128.4 131.3 134.2 137.2 140.6 144.2 147.8 151.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 9 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -16. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 15. 13. 11. 1. -12. -21. -28. -31. -34. -38. -38. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.1 119.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/14/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.20 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 253.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.4% 30.5% 20.5% 18.2% 13.3% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 42.6% 55.5% 36.9% 30.2% 12.9% 9.5% 0.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 26.5% 19.5% 8.1% 4.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 33.5% 35.2% 21.8% 17.7% 9.1% 9.4% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 57.0% 55.0% 39.0% 25.0% 16.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/14/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##