* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942023 07/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 46 46 45 42 40 40 40 41 45 50 53 57 56 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 46 46 45 42 40 40 40 41 45 50 53 57 56 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 46 44 43 42 40 40 40 42 46 48 50 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 16 17 12 7 6 6 12 16 22 23 14 8 10 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 1 0 -2 -3 -5 -1 -5 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 305 315 300 303 325 345 351 343 318 317 350 355 344 248 237 219 339 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.8 24.4 24.3 23.4 22.8 22.5 22.9 24.0 24.6 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 107 103 103 101 99 93 90 89 91 96 100 96 95 96 92 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -56.0 -56.1 -56.2 -56.6 -56.4 -56.3 -56.3 -55.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 1.3 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 46 44 47 43 44 42 42 44 52 56 57 52 53 50 50 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 21 20 20 19 18 17 17 17 18 21 22 22 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 63 63 59 49 21 0 -30 -37 -30 0 27 51 69 80 82 67 41 200 MB DIV 9 7 23 6 -1 -5 -4 10 -18 -16 -29 -14 -14 17 -2 5 -17 700-850 TADV 10 5 11 7 9 16 9 9 8 0 3 0 0 2 3 6 8 LAND (KM) 1643 1590 1530 1456 1383 1186 1022 974 1083 1275 1481 1622 1722 1781 1833 1832 1801 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.2 33.8 34.5 35.2 37.2 39.1 40.4 40.7 40.1 38.8 37.3 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.7 46.7 46.6 46.6 46.6 46.4 45.9 44.6 42.4 40.1 38.4 38.0 38.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 10 9 8 9 10 8 7 6 2 4 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -20. -21. -22. -20. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -14. -11. -9. -10. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 5. 8. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.7 46.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942023 INVEST 07/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 353.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 11.8% 8.5% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.2% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942023 INVEST 07/14/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942023 INVEST 07/14/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 46 46 45 42 40 40 40 41 45 50 53 57 56 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 44 44 43 40 38 38 38 39 43 48 51 55 54 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 40 39 36 34 34 34 35 39 44 47 51 50 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 33 30 28 28 28 29 33 38 41 45 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT