* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/14/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 97 101 102 102 97 90 78 65 57 49 45 41 37 36 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 97 101 102 102 97 90 78 65 57 49 45 41 37 36 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 96 98 95 90 81 75 66 57 50 45 42 39 35 31 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 3 4 3 5 11 10 10 10 14 17 17 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -4 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 7 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 318 334 242 112 102 9 229 281 264 282 232 210 198 215 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.9 26.5 26.3 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.2 23.9 24.2 24.7 25.3 25.3 26.4 26.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 130 128 122 118 112 107 104 107 113 119 119 130 133 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 75 73 72 71 67 61 58 53 51 49 50 49 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 27 28 27 24 21 19 17 14 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 34 38 39 37 29 30 30 36 32 29 12 4 -6 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 47 50 46 38 18 2 -2 -1 -11 1 8 12 18 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -4 -2 -5 -2 1 1 7 -1 0 2 5 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1607 1680 1755 1842 1930 2090 2267 2052 1710 1345 958 588 233 67 221 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.2 122.6 124.0 125.5 126.9 129.7 132.5 135.7 138.9 142.3 145.9 149.4 152.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. -28. -30. -31. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 12. 12. 7. -0. -12. -25. -33. -41. -45. -49. -53. -54. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 13.1 121.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/14/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.07 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.9% 23.1% 19.3% 17.3% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 38.4% 40.5% 27.6% 20.5% 9.7% 4.7% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 31.8% 4.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.7% 22.7% 16.0% 12.8% 7.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 61.0% 45.0% 23.0% 14.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/14/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##