* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/14/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 43 44 45 44 42 41 42 45 48 51 50 51 56 59 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 43 44 45 44 42 41 42 45 48 51 50 51 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 42 42 42 42 44 47 51 53 53 55 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 18 13 10 6 2 3 6 10 9 11 1 2 5 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 1 -1 1 2 2 0 2 -4 -4 -3 -7 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 316 303 301 320 308 339 336 335 340 4 46 42 230 242 259 248 293 SST (C) 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.2 23.0 23.6 24.1 24.9 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.3 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 107 104 102 101 100 99 98 98 92 96 98 103 100 101 102 100 96 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -56.2 -56.4 -56.8 -56.6 -56.3 -55.6 -55.4 -55.4 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 41 44 43 42 41 39 42 45 50 49 47 44 49 48 48 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 19 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 20 22 19 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 64 54 48 26 26 -5 -25 -34 -20 15 64 89 92 88 74 60 51 200 MB DIV -3 19 -1 -6 4 0 28 -16 -12 -21 -20 -10 4 9 6 -5 -10 700-850 TADV 6 10 6 6 9 7 9 3 2 -3 0 -1 1 5 2 3 2 LAND (KM) 1557 1494 1430 1343 1255 1102 1017 1014 1184 1421 1652 1824 1915 1913 1827 1714 1618 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.0 34.6 35.4 36.1 37.5 38.4 39.0 38.6 37.2 35.4 34.1 33.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.1 47.1 47.1 47.4 47.7 47.9 47.7 46.3 43.6 41.5 40.2 39.2 38.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 6 5 8 10 11 9 6 2 2 5 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -19. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 20. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -13. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -0. 3. 6. 5. 6. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.4 47.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/14/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.9% 7.9% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.9% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/14/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/14/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 43 44 45 44 42 41 42 45 48 51 50 51 56 59 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 43 44 43 41 40 41 44 47 50 49 50 55 58 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 41 42 41 39 38 39 42 45 48 47 48 53 56 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 36 34 33 34 37 40 43 42 43 48 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT