* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 38 38 39 38 37 37 37 39 39 39 39 41 43 47 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 38 38 39 38 37 37 37 39 39 39 39 41 43 47 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 35 35 36 38 39 41 42 42 43 42 40 37 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 16 12 8 8 5 4 5 17 21 26 19 30 32 38 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 1 -1 -3 -6 -3 -1 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 304 300 317 316 336 344 329 343 12 33 48 38 18 13 14 18 35 SST (C) 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.3 23.0 23.7 24.5 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.4 24.0 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 108 105 102 101 100 99 98 99 92 96 100 102 101 101 98 96 93 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 -56.5 -56.0 -55.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 41 40 41 45 46 47 48 47 50 49 48 45 42 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 21 21 21 20 18 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 57 49 33 28 15 -18 -30 -34 -12 5 33 49 42 35 28 -1 -24 200 MB DIV 13 -1 0 8 5 -9 11 -5 -25 -54 -41 -24 -8 -8 -17 -28 -39 700-850 TADV 11 4 8 11 17 8 7 5 0 1 0 0 -1 1 0 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1504 1426 1347 1263 1179 1050 990 1060 1267 1494 1731 1855 1875 1822 1733 1645 1568 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.4 35.1 35.9 36.6 37.8 38.7 38.8 37.9 36.5 34.7 33.7 33.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.9 48.0 48.2 48.3 48.5 48.6 47.6 45.7 43.2 41.3 39.9 39.3 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 9 11 10 8 3 1 3 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.7 47.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 8.7% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/14/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 37 38 38 39 38 37 37 37 39 39 39 39 41 43 47 18HR AGO 40 39 38 39 39 40 39 38 38 38 40 40 40 40 42 44 48 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 38 37 36 36 36 38 38 38 38 40 42 46 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 30 29 29 29 31 31 31 31 33 35 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT