* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/14/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 111 107 103 92 78 65 54 45 37 31 26 24 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 112 111 107 103 92 78 65 54 45 37 31 26 25 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 110 105 98 92 79 66 57 50 45 40 35 31 26 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 3 1 3 8 6 9 14 16 25 29 29 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 2 3 2 0 0 0 1 5 1 3 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 181 140 134 82 208 297 278 280 250 220 209 231 239 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.8 24.5 23.9 23.9 24.2 24.6 25.2 25.2 26.7 26.7 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 125 121 123 109 103 104 107 112 118 118 133 133 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 72 69 66 59 56 51 49 47 46 45 44 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 28 27 27 24 22 19 17 15 12 9 6 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 38 28 30 35 33 37 39 31 18 7 0 -12 -17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 65 49 18 22 9 -11 11 -12 -1 13 4 7 12 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -7 -9 -6 1 0 6 3 1 5 6 0 -3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1748 1823 1899 1975 2059 2244 2079 1723 1354 963 558 160 131 168 345 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.7 16.4 16.9 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.6 19.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.9 125.3 126.7 128.1 129.5 132.4 135.4 138.7 142.1 145.8 149.7 153.6 157.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 17 17 18 19 18 17 15 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -21. -28. -34. -40. -45. -49. -52. -54. -55. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -25. -24. -23. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -3. -6. -18. -32. -45. -56. -65. -73. -79. -84. -86. -86. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 13.7 123.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/14/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.2% 18.1% 14.2% 9.7% 4.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 6.0% 4.7% 3.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/14/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##