* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/15/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 41 39 38 38 38 38 40 41 47 50 51 52 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 41 39 38 38 38 38 40 41 47 50 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 39 39 38 38 38 39 40 41 42 45 48 49 48 46 Storm Type SUBT TROP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 11 9 9 5 5 4 7 24 21 10 10 4 10 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 1 0 4 3 2 1 -6 -5 -2 -3 0 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 297 317 320 334 342 353 336 3 3 52 47 44 15 320 80 72 80 SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.4 24.3 23.0 23.7 23.9 24.8 25.3 25.3 25.1 24.3 23.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 103 102 101 100 100 99 99 91 96 97 102 104 104 104 98 95 99 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 -56.4 -56.3 -56.4 -55.8 -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 41 42 42 41 41 45 46 50 49 50 48 49 46 45 39 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 21 20 19 18 18 18 17 16 17 17 19 19 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 31 18 16 -4 -14 -33 -44 -30 -7 22 46 72 61 33 15 -13 -34 200 MB DIV -1 -5 2 1 -6 14 0 -20 -46 -48 -30 0 -12 -9 -43 -13 -16 700-850 TADV 10 10 12 20 11 11 3 0 -4 0 -3 0 0 0 2 1 3 LAND (KM) 1462 1379 1297 1222 1147 1048 1051 1200 1399 1611 1813 1910 1878 1807 1690 1580 1481 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.1 38.2 38.8 38.3 37.2 35.8 34.1 33.1 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.1 47.4 47.7 47.7 47.8 47.4 45.9 43.8 41.9 40.3 39.4 39.3 40.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 9 9 9 7 3 2 5 6 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. -12. -14. -18. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 7. 10. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.3 47.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/15/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 27.0 to 144.1 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.6% 7.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.8% 2.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/15/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/15/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 40 41 39 38 38 38 38 40 41 47 50 51 52 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 39 40 38 37 37 37 37 39 40 46 49 50 51 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 37 35 34 34 34 34 36 37 43 46 47 48 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 29 28 28 28 28 30 31 37 40 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT