* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/15/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 102 99 96 82 69 59 49 41 37 32 28 27 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 104 102 99 96 82 69 59 49 41 37 32 29 27 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 103 98 93 87 72 60 51 44 39 35 31 27 23 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 4 1 10 7 11 11 12 16 23 21 30 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 4 5 3 8 3 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 120 41 6 273 271 283 268 255 239 202 213 233 260 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.0 25.6 25.7 25.3 24.0 23.8 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.0 25.4 26.5 26.8 27.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 121 122 118 104 102 106 111 115 115 120 131 134 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 69 68 63 57 56 49 49 48 47 46 45 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 26 27 23 20 18 16 13 12 9 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 38 26 24 23 25 18 26 25 21 5 -7 -18 -17 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 53 19 2 -6 -36 20 2 5 -1 26 -1 29 11 18 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -6 -10 -5 1 0 6 5 2 2 11 6 0 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1831 1911 1983 2059 2137 2234 1894 1570 1175 791 431 83 182 248 497 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.3 126.8 128.2 129.5 130.9 134.0 137.1 140.1 143.8 147.4 150.8 154.3 157.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 15 15 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -26. -32. -37. -41. -45. -48. -50. -50. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -21. -23. -25. -24. -22. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -23. -36. -46. -56. -63. -68. -73. -77. -78. -76. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.0 125.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/15/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 5.8% 3.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/15/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##