* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 38 37 37 38 39 41 41 51 56 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 38 37 37 38 39 41 41 51 56 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 40 40 42 44 45 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 10 8 7 3 4 5 21 24 28 13 20 21 28 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 -2 -1 -5 -1 -5 0 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 313 319 331 325 333 308 354 344 39 50 44 19 13 9 11 14 50 SST (C) 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.1 24.2 22.9 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.1 25.2 24.7 24.3 24.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 100 100 99 97 98 91 96 99 100 101 102 101 98 96 98 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -56.1 -56.2 -56.4 -56.5 -56.0 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 40 40 39 39 40 44 47 46 48 46 50 48 48 46 46 36 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 22 21 19 18 18 17 16 15 16 17 18 17 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 18 15 -2 -16 -27 -37 -38 -21 -6 22 45 44 36 37 43 44 35 200 MB DIV 1 -3 1 2 5 4 -6 -38 -53 -40 -20 1 -12 22 6 15 -12 700-850 TADV 12 13 18 11 12 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1339 1277 1215 1131 1048 1003 1079 1217 1469 1663 1770 1817 1811 1739 1604 1503 1447 LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.9 36.4 37.2 38.0 38.8 38.9 38.4 36.6 35.1 34.1 33.6 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.7 47.9 48.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 45.1 43.3 41.6 40.5 40.2 40.2 40.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 6 6 7 9 10 7 4 2 2 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -15. -16. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 16. 15. 14. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -16. -18. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 11. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 35.3 47.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 9.8% 7.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.9% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/15/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/15/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 40 40 40 39 39 38 37 37 38 39 41 41 51 56 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 37 36 36 37 38 40 40 50 55 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 36 35 35 34 33 33 34 35 37 37 47 52 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 27 28 29 31 31 41 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT