* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/15/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 82 80 76 67 60 52 47 43 40 37 39 39 41 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 85 82 80 76 67 60 52 47 43 40 33 38 38 40 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 83 78 74 69 58 50 43 39 36 33 31 29 27 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 2 2 5 9 7 9 9 7 13 19 18 19 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 2 1 1 2 5 3 3 11 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 132 51 26 1 256 280 244 269 255 235 191 210 218 249 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.8 25.3 24.4 24.0 23.9 24.2 24.6 25.1 25.0 26.0 26.6 27.0 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 123 118 108 104 104 107 111 116 115 126 132 136 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 6 6 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 68 65 60 58 53 49 47 48 48 48 45 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 27 27 26 23 20 17 15 13 12 9 10 10 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 23 20 17 25 16 20 24 21 3 -5 -19 -13 -17 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 26 0 -2 -19 -15 30 -7 -1 7 29 -7 53 37 26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -4 2 3 5 10 6 6 10 15 7 5 11 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1923 2003 2090 2172 2261 2060 1744 1381 989 626 294 -7 191 301 607 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.8 128.3 129.7 131.2 132.6 135.6 138.5 141.9 145.6 149.0 152.1 155.3 158.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 14 16 17 17 15 15 16 17 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. -34. -34. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -17. -19. -22. -24. -21. -19. -18. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -14. -23. -30. -38. -43. -47. -50. -53. -51. -51. -49. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.3 126.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/15/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/15/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##