* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/15/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 81 77 72 64 57 50 46 40 35 32 31 32 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 85 81 77 72 64 57 50 46 40 35 33 32 33 33 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 84 79 74 68 58 50 44 40 35 31 29 26 24 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 5 10 5 10 10 11 11 19 20 24 22 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 0 3 -2 1 2 4 3 6 7 8 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 75 64 270 288 278 256 254 246 193 200 225 243 253 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.4 24.8 24.2 23.8 24.4 24.8 25.1 24.9 25.5 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 113 106 102 109 113 117 115 121 131 133 136 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -53.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 66 63 59 57 50 49 45 46 47 47 45 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 24 23 20 18 15 15 11 9 7 6 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 17 18 11 3 10 19 12 -5 -4 -12 -16 -13 -16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 5 -8 -25 -50 10 22 -6 -3 34 1 21 28 57 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -1 2 -1 -1 3 3 10 3 8 5 0 5 7 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2007 2090 2176 2267 2237 1907 1562 1187 809 429 44 135 143 429 751 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.3 18.7 19.2 19.9 20.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.2 129.7 131.1 132.5 134.0 137.0 140.2 143.7 147.2 150.8 154.5 157.9 161.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 17 16 15 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 6 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -28. -30. -33. -34. -34. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -16. -21. -24. -26. -24. -21. -21. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -18. -26. -33. -40. -44. -50. -55. -58. -59. -58. -58. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.5 128.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/15/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 468.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/15/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##