* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 39 41 42 44 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 39 41 42 44 48 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 35 38 41 43 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 9 4 4 7 8 16 22 24 9 9 11 4 10 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 3 3 2 1 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 3 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 337 340 358 5 339 351 349 30 60 57 23 36 347 4 89 108 133 SST (C) 24.7 24.4 24.3 23.8 23.2 24.1 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 98 94 91 98 91 95 98 100 102 101 102 101 100 98 96 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -56.0 -55.9 -56.2 -56.6 -56.8 -56.2 -55.7 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 36 37 37 39 42 46 45 45 44 45 42 44 43 44 41 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 17 17 16 16 15 15 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -14 -30 -36 -43 -41 -25 0 34 59 62 63 38 40 25 -8 -40 200 MB DIV -9 -1 0 25 20 -20 -36 -48 -47 -19 4 -4 8 3 13 -20 8 700-850 TADV 15 6 10 10 5 6 1 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 3 LAND (KM) 1145 1063 983 959 938 1028 1168 1367 1542 1682 1791 1825 1768 1592 1318 1125 1023 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.7 38.5 38.9 39.3 39.3 38.9 37.5 35.9 34.5 33.3 32.8 33.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 48.5 48.4 47.9 47.4 45.4 43.4 42.0 41.4 41.2 41.3 41.6 42.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 7 4 2 5 10 11 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. -16. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 36.9 48.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 10.4% 7.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 4.0% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/15/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 39 41 42 44 48 50 51 18HR AGO 35 34 33 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 39 41 42 44 48 50 51 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 32 33 33 33 34 37 39 40 42 46 48 49 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 30 32 33 35 39 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT