* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/15/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 76 70 64 57 51 44 41 34 31 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 76 70 64 57 51 44 41 34 31 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 74 67 61 51 45 40 36 32 29 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 9 12 9 7 10 10 7 17 20 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -2 0 2 -1 -1 2 7 4 4 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 22 1 253 281 294 229 259 240 218 181 216 245 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.3 24.7 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.3 26.5 26.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 112 106 105 106 110 113 117 119 131 132 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -53.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 62 59 57 50 47 43 41 42 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 23 21 19 17 15 14 11 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 18 16 9 19 25 24 12 2 -11 -19 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -4 -21 -44 -24 20 0 -7 16 14 4 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 -3 0 7 2 8 4 9 1 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2098 2192 2291 2212 2052 1707 1332 958 565 180 83 200 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.7 131.3 132.8 134.3 135.7 138.9 142.4 145.9 149.6 153.3 156.7 160.0 163.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 15 16 17 17 18 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -17. -22. -24. -26. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -21. -28. -34. -41. -44. -51. -54. -56. -56. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.8 129.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/15/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/15/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##