* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 33 32 33 33 33 32 33 34 36 35 33 31 33 35 V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 33 32 33 33 33 32 33 34 36 35 33 31 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 32 33 33 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 7 8 6 8 19 25 19 19 19 24 29 17 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 2 3 3 0 -4 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 1 348 341 342 350 6 49 56 45 37 32 39 58 70 88 282 SST (C) 24.4 24.3 23.3 23.2 23.8 23.3 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.8 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.4 23.7 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 92 91 95 93 94 97 98 101 101 100 100 100 96 98 97 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -56.5 -56.6 -56.6 -55.7 -55.1 -54.8 -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.3 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 35 37 39 42 43 46 45 46 42 43 43 45 46 42 32 30 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 18 18 18 18 17 16 16 16 15 13 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -33 -36 -48 -51 -38 -15 14 38 52 49 39 21 7 -30 -84 -124 200 MB DIV -5 5 26 10 -27 -35 -61 -54 -36 -32 -25 5 -3 -14 -12 -10 -26 700-850 TADV 5 8 10 8 3 1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 5 9 LAND (KM) 1034 976 921 923 929 1076 1290 1505 1667 1758 1786 1753 1647 1471 1234 1023 873 LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.6 39.2 39.5 39.8 39.4 38.2 36.5 35.0 33.9 33.3 33.4 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.8 48.4 48.1 47.3 46.5 44.3 42.3 41.1 40.6 40.8 41.4 41.9 42.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 9 9 9 7 5 2 3 6 9 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. -11. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. -11. -13. -14. -17. -20. -26. -30. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 37.9 48.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 10.3% 7.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.8% 2.7% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/16/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 33 33 32 33 33 33 32 33 34 36 35 33 31 33 35 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 33 34 34 34 33 34 35 37 36 34 32 34 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 31 31 31 30 31 32 34 33 31 29 31 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 25 25 24 25 26 28 27 25 23 25 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT