* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/16/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 76 70 65 58 50 46 40 34 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 76 70 65 58 50 46 40 31 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 73 66 59 50 45 41 37 32 29 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 8 10 8 3 8 10 8 13 20 22 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 0 2 2 -2 -1 3 5 6 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 203 251 276 293 293 247 249 253 168 196 232 266 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 24.7 24.2 24.1 23.8 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.0 25.8 26.5 26.8 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 112 107 106 102 110 114 117 116 124 131 135 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -53.0 -53.5 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 61 59 57 55 52 45 43 39 41 41 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 23 21 21 19 16 15 13 10 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 17 17 18 26 32 26 11 3 -9 -16 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -16 -40 -26 11 4 0 16 28 14 10 12 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 6 2 0 3 3 4 3 5 7 1 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2184 2280 2203 2034 1865 1510 1115 724 337 -5 192 270 604 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.6 20.1 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.2 132.8 134.3 135.9 137.4 140.7 144.4 148.1 151.7 155.2 158.5 162.1 166.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 17 18 17 17 16 16 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -18. -20. -23. -25. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -25. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -20. -27. -35. -39. -45. -51. -57. -57. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.2 131.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/16/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 525.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 49.8 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/16/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##