* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/16/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 34 34 33 34 33 33 33 31 29 28 29 33 35 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 34 34 33 34 33 33 33 31 29 28 29 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 34 32 31 30 29 28 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 7 6 8 11 18 21 33 27 33 28 25 22 14 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 4 3 4 2 0 -7 -3 -5 -1 -1 -6 -6 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 359 345 345 354 6 1 29 52 54 40 53 58 59 68 86 217 221 SST (C) 24.4 23.9 23.1 23.6 24.1 23.0 23.7 24.2 24.5 24.8 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.2 23.5 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 99 96 91 94 98 91 95 98 99 100 101 100 100 99 95 97 96 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.9 -55.8 -55.7 -56.0 -56.3 -56.6 -55.9 -55.3 -54.5 -54.6 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 36 39 40 43 45 45 44 43 45 43 44 42 41 35 30 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 18 17 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -36 -50 -54 -51 -33 -8 28 47 39 32 7 -11 -17 -53 -92 -131 200 MB DIV 1 24 6 -19 -29 -23 -62 -46 -28 -19 -29 -41 -1 -20 -15 -21 -6 700-850 TADV 9 10 9 3 4 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 984 950 920 957 1000 1175 1376 1571 1687 1747 1758 1702 1572 1376 1150 949 771 LAT (DEG N) 38.4 38.9 39.4 39.5 39.5 38.7 37.4 35.7 34.5 33.7 33.3 33.6 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.7 48.2 47.6 46.6 45.6 43.6 42.0 41.2 41.1 41.4 42.0 42.6 43.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 5 3 2 4 7 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.4 48.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/16/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 9.3% 6.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.9% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/16/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/16/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 34 34 34 33 34 33 33 33 31 29 28 29 33 35 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 33 32 33 32 32 32 30 28 27 28 32 34 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 31 30 31 30 30 30 28 26 25 26 30 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 25 24 24 24 22 20 19 20 24 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT