* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/16/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 63 59 55 51 46 43 37 34 33 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 70 63 59 55 51 46 43 37 34 33 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 69 63 57 53 46 42 39 36 32 28 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 4 2 7 9 7 14 12 18 30 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 1 -1 -1 0 6 6 10 13 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 291 302 322 226 257 236 207 174 204 215 258 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 24.1 23.8 24.2 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.2 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 108 106 103 107 110 114 117 118 130 132 136 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 56 54 54 49 45 40 39 40 40 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 21 21 19 18 16 15 12 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 15 14 22 25 26 4 -3 -9 -17 -27 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -28 -24 16 18 -5 14 15 18 30 33 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 -1 1 3 4 9 5 11 6 0 4 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2275 2214 2034 1855 1676 1324 946 562 198 88 232 391 745 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.7 20.2 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.6 134.3 135.9 137.5 139.2 142.5 146.1 149.7 153.3 156.7 160.1 163.6 167.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 16 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -9. -13. -19. -22. -24. -25. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -16. -20. -24. -29. -32. -38. -41. -42. -43. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.5 132.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/16/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 502.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/16/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##