* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DON AL052023 07/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 34 35 36 35 35 36 36 36 37 39 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 34 35 36 35 35 36 36 36 37 39 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 36 37 37 35 34 34 35 36 38 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 8 8 11 15 27 23 19 24 16 16 13 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 3 4 2 3 -4 -3 -4 -5 0 -1 -4 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 340 349 5 358 1 57 51 55 51 62 75 82 103 88 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.1 23.4 24.1 23.9 23.4 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.1 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 91 93 98 97 94 97 99 100 100 100 98 98 100 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.7 -55.7 -56.0 -56.1 -56.4 -56.3 -55.7 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 42 46 45 46 45 41 44 42 41 39 41 41 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 18 19 21 20 19 18 16 16 16 15 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -49 -51 -45 -40 -8 24 47 65 59 43 26 -8 -39 -75 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 3 -24 -27 -11 -27 -52 -42 -16 -23 -26 -18 -14 2 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 5 3 -1 -5 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 2 -3 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 935 939 949 1011 1076 1297 1486 1620 1753 1794 1747 1664 1545 1280 925 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.9 39.2 39.4 39.3 39.1 37.8 36.4 35.0 33.5 32.8 32.8 33.2 34.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.6 47.8 46.9 45.8 44.8 42.8 41.6 41.5 41.7 42.3 43.4 44.5 45.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 7 7 6 4 5 5 9 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -8. -8. -8. -6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -15. -16. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.9 48.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052023 DON 07/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.6% 7.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.0% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052023 DON 07/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052023 DON 07/16/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 34 34 35 36 35 35 36 36 36 37 39 42 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 34 35 36 35 35 36 36 36 37 39 42 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 32 33 32 32 33 33 33 34 36 39 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 27 26 26 27 27 27 28 30 33 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT