* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CALVIN EP032023 07/16/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 50 45 43 41 38 35 31 29 27 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 56 50 45 43 41 38 35 31 29 27 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 57 50 45 42 37 35 32 29 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 6 3 5 9 10 10 14 16 28 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 0 -2 -2 1 7 10 10 6 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 310 311 277 261 242 239 177 188 218 254 258 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.4 24.0 24.3 24.6 25.4 25.6 25.0 25.3 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 105 108 111 120 122 116 119 130 133 136 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 56 54 47 45 39 40 42 39 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 21 19 18 17 15 13 10 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 8 14 16 17 16 -4 -10 -11 -26 -20 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -11 31 17 -15 12 18 35 28 20 8 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 3 1 3 7 7 11 12 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2240 2067 1894 1710 1526 1146 784 401 83 206 215 468 783 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.6 19.3 20.2 20.4 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.6 137.2 138.9 140.6 144.2 147.6 151.2 154.8 158.2 161.4 164.5 167.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -8. -12. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -19. -22. -24. -27. -30. -34. -36. -38. -39. -43. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.8 134.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032023 CALVIN 07/16/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032023 CALVIN 07/16/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##